Climate change and the Canadian marine conservation framework

The scope of this collection titled “Climate change and the Canadian marine conservation framework” is to examine science-based approaches for integrating climate change into the design, monitoring, and management of Canadian marine conserved areas. Climate change is an ongoing and increasing threat to the effectiveness of protected areas and other spatial planning tools throughout Canada’s exclusive economic zone. The contributions to this collection will highlight evidence-based gaps, challenges, opportunities, and solutions to operationalize climate change resilience into federal and provincial marine spatial planning and policymaking, including through blue carbon and blue economy initiatives.

Including interdisciplinary and diverse perspectives from biology, ecology, law, management, Indigenous knowledge as well as social science, the objective of this collection is to highlight novel approaches, insights, and recommendations that integrate solutions towards mitigating and adapting to two of the most significant crises facing the Canadian and global ocean: biodiversity loss and climate change. This collection can include work on ecological indicators, climate vulnerability assessments, impacts on coastal communities, and climate-impact projections that collectively will help policy makers and managers better understand how marine ecosystems and dependent human communities will respond to climate change and how those changes can be integrated into the design and management of the Canadian marine conservation framework.

Accompanying the start of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and recent commitments by the Government of Canada to safeguard marine biodiversity through marine conservation areas (30% by 2030), this collection will provide solution-focussed and policy-relevant insights as well as tailored recommendations to help achieve national and international targets.

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Assessing climate change vulnerability in Canadian marine conservation networks: implications for conservation planning and resilience
FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 15
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are critical in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem functions under climate change. The long-term effectiveness of these static conservation measures will depend on how well they represent current and future ocean changes. Here, we use the Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity to assess the vulnerability representation of marine ecosystems within the Canadian marine conservation network (CMCN) under two divergent emissions scenarios. We found that MPAs best represent climate vulnerability in Atlantic Canada (85% representativity overall, and 93% in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence under low emissions), followed by the Pacific (78%) and Arctic (63%; lowest in the Eastern Arctic (41% under high emissions) regions). Notably, MPAs with lower climate vulnerability are proportionally overrepresented in the CMCN. Broad-scale geographic targets employed in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy network planning process achieve over 90% representativity of climate vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of ensuring habitat representativity and geographic distribution in conservation planning to enhance climate resilience, even if not explicitly prioritized. Moving towards Canada’s target to protect 30% of its waters by 2030, prioritizing representativity and designation of MPAs in currently underrepresented climate-vulnerable regions may be crucial to enhancing the resilience of the CMCN amidst an ever-changing climate.
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Bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) growth rates as climate stress indicators for Canada’s Pacific coast
FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 19
Primary producers’ growth rates are ideal bioindicators of changing climate due to their sensitivity to environmental conditions. On the Central Coast of British Columbia, we assessed growth rates of Nereocystis luetkeana, a canopy-forming annual kelp, by assessing baseline variability in growth rates and their response to environmental conditions of over 600 individuals and across three sites (2016–2019). Optimal growth rates for blades and stipes (∼13–14 cm/day) occurred within a narrow range of local environmental conditions. Growth decreased at temperatures > 10 °C, below 1 µm/L nitrate concentration, and surface light availability reduced blade growth at low and high levels (daily light integral or DLI <20 and >40 mol/m2/day). Spatiotemporal variability in these environmental drivers co-occurred with differences in growth rates, suggesting that local conditions strongly influenced growth. In particular, temperature and nutrients were un-coupled seasonally in this region, with more variable responses in growth over the primary growing season (May to September). Overall, the sensitivity of the growth rates of this annual kelp to changing climatic conditions suggests that it is a useful bioindicator for management and marine planning efforts (e.g., restoration and aquaculture) across its species range and provides a feasible metric for monitoring.
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Climate bottlenecks off Newfoundland and Labrador for Atlantic cod in relation to eastern Canadian marine protected areas
FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 31
Climate change presents challenges for marine area-based conservation measures through altered habitat and associated species range shifts. We conducted statistical downscaling for the eastern Canadian coastal domain over a range of global climate models, focusing on habitat suitability for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a numerically depressed, but ecologically, economically, and culturally important species in this region. We examined cod egg survival, juvenile growth, and spawning habitat suitability, combining these into one habitat index to compare within-closure habitat suitability for multiple life stages through time. Areas of high cod egg habitat suitability are projected to shift northward and increase across all area closures studied, while optimum juvenile habitat shifts north and eastward, increasing in almost all closures except the south. Spawning habitat as a function of temperature and oxygen will likely decrease through time across the entire region, but less in northern locations. Overall cod habitat is forecasted to decline in the south of the region while increasing at central and northern latitudes, highlighting the importance of existing and developing northern shelf area closures. While warming will bring temperatures closer to optimum levels for cod in this cold-water system, oxygen limitation will become more prevalent in the south of the region and should be monitored as an important ocean health indicator.
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Evaluating the design of the first marine protected area network in Pacific Canada under a changing climate
FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 18
Marine protected area (MPAs) networks can buffer marine ecosystems from the impacts of climate change by allowing species to redistribute as conditions change and by reducing other stressors. There are, however, few examples where climate change has been considered in MPA network design. In this paper, we assess how climate change considerations were integrated into the design of a newly released MPA network in the Northern Shelf Bioregion in British Columbia, Canada, and then evaluate the resulting network against projected physical and biogeochemical changes and biological responses. We found that representation, replication, and size and spacing recommendations integrated into the design phase were met in most cases. Furthermore, despite varying degrees of projected changes in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and aragonite saturation across the MPA network, suitable habitat for demersal fish species is projected to remain in the network despite some redistribution among sites. We also found that mid-depth MPAs are particularly important for persistence, as fish are projected to move deeper to avoid warming in shallower areas. Our results highlight that a representative MPA network with adequate replication, that incorporates areas of varying climate change trajectory, should buffer against the impacts of climate change.
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Considering the implications of climate-induced species range shifts in marine protected areas planning
FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 10
Climate change is affecting the ocean, altering the biogeography of marine species. Yet marine protected area (MPA) planning still rarely incorporates projected species range shifts. We used the outputs of species distribution models fitted with biological and climate data as inputs to identify trends in occurrence for marine species in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We assessed and compared two ways of incorporating climate change projections into MPA planning. First, we overlaid 98 species with modelled distributions now and by the mid-21st century under two contrasting (“no mitigation” and “strong mitigation”) climate change scenarios with existing Provincial marine parks in BC, to ask which species could overlap with protected areas in the future. Second, we completed a spatial prioritization analysis using Marxan with the projected future species ranges as inputs, to ask where priority regions exist for the 98 marine species. We found that many BC marine parks will lose species in both climate scenarios that we analyzed, and that protecting 30% of important marine species will be challenging under the “no mitigation” climate change scenario. Challenges included the coarse resolution of the data and uncertainty in projecting species range shifts.
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Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.
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Climate change, species thermal emergence, and conservation design: a case study in the Canadian Northwest Atlantic
FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that promote biodiversity by regulating human impacts. However, because MPAs are fixed in space and, by design, difficult to change, climate change may challenge their long-term effectiveness. It is therefore imperative to consider anticipated ecological changes in their design. We predict the time of emergence (ToE: year when temperatures will exceed a species’ tolerance) of 30 fish and invertebrate species in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy draft network of conservation areas based on climate projections under two contrasting emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We demonstrate a strong Southwest-to-Northeast gradient of change under both scenarios. Cold water-associated species had earlier ToEs, particularly in southwesterly areas. Under low emissions, 20.0% of habitat and 12.6% of species emerged from the network as a whole by 2100. Under high emissions, 51% of habitat and 42% of species emerged. These impacts are expected within the next 30–50 years in some southwestern areas. The magnitude and velocity of change will be tempered by reduced emissions. Our identification of high- and low-risk areas for species of direct and indirect conservation interest can support decisions regarding site and network design (and designation scheduling), promoting climate resilience.
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A prospective framework to support climate-adaptive fisheries in Canada
- Daniel G. Boyce,
- Nancy Shackell,
- Phil Greyson, and
- Blair Greenan
FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 15
Climate change affects virtually all marine life and is increasingly a dominant concern for fisheries, reinforcing the need to incorporate climate variability and change when managing fish stocks. Canada is expected to experience widespread climate-driven impacts on its fisheries but does not yet have a clear adaptation strategy. Here, we provide an overview of a project we are developing, the Climate Adaptation Framework for Fisheries, to address this need and support climate adaptation in Canadian marine fisheries. The framework seeks to quantitatively and flexibly evaluate species, fishing infrastructure, and the management and operation of fisheries to assess climate vulnerability comprehensively and provide outputs that can support climate adaptation planning across different sectors, agencies, and stakeholders. This new framework should allow future climate scenarios to be evaluated and identify actionable climate vulnerabilities related to the management of fisheries, creating a systematic approach to supporting climate adaptation in Canada’s fisheries.
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Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change
FACETS • Vol. 7 • pp. 1142 - 1184
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
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A climate-resilient marine conservation network for Canada
- A. Bryndum-Buchholz,
- K. Boerder,
- R.R.E. Stanley,
- I. Hurley,
- D.G. Boyce,
- K.M. Dunmall,
- K.L. Hunter,
- H.K. Lotze,
- N.L. Shackell,
- B. Worm, and
- D.P. Tittensor
FACETS • Vol. 7 • pp. 571 - 590
Climate change and biodiversity loss are twin crises that are driving global marine conservation efforts. However, if unaccounted for, climate change can undermine the efficacy of such efforts. Despite this, integration of climate change adaptation and resilience into spatial marine conservation and management has been limited in Canada and elsewhere. With climate change impacts becoming increasingly severe, now is the time to anticipate and reduce impacts wherever possible. We provide five recommendations for an inclusive, proactive, climate-ready approach for Canada’s growing marine conservation network: (1) integrating climate-resilience as a universal objective of the Canadian Marine Conservation Network, creating and implementing (2) national transdisciplinary working groups with representation from all knowledge holders and (3) necessary tools that integrate climate change into conservation design, (4) defining operational and climate-relevant monitoring and management objectives, and (5) strengthening communication and increasing knowledge exchange around the roles and benefits of protected areas within government and towards the public. Canada’s extensive marine and coastal areas reflect national and international responsibility to engage on this issue. Canada is well positioned to assume a leading role in climate change adaptation for marine conservation and help accelerate progress towards international commitments around mitigating ongoing biodiversity loss and climate change.

Curators

Derek Tittensor

Guest Editor

Dalhousie University

Ryan Stanley

Guest Editor

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz

Guest Editor

Memorial University

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