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  • OPEN ACCESS
    Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans
    FACETS • Vol. 5 • No. 1 • pp. 105 - 122
    Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Considering the implications of climate-induced species range shifts in marine protected areas planning
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 10
    Climate change is affecting the ocean, altering the biogeography of marine species. Yet marine protected area (MPA) planning still rarely incorporates projected species range shifts. We used the outputs of species distribution models fitted with biological and climate data as inputs to identify trends in occurrence for marine species in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We assessed and compared two ways of incorporating climate change projections into MPA planning. First, we overlaid 98 species with modelled distributions now and by the mid-21st century under two contrasting (“no mitigation” and “strong mitigation”) climate change scenarios with existing Provincial marine parks in BC, to ask which species could overlap with protected areas in the future. Second, we completed a spatial prioritization analysis using Marxan with the projected future species ranges as inputs, to ask where priority regions exist for the 98 marine species. We found that many BC marine parks will lose species in both climate scenarios that we analyzed, and that protecting 30% of important marine species will be challenging under the “no mitigation” climate change scenario. Challenges included the coarse resolution of the data and uncertainty in projecting species range shifts.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Opposing trends in fisheries portfolio diversity at harvester and community scales signal opportunities for adaptation
    FACETS • Vol. 7 • pp. 1385 - 1410
    Understanding mechanisms that promote social-ecological resilience can inform future adaptation strategies. Among seafood dependent communities, these can be illuminated by assessing change among fisheries portfolios. Here, in collaboration with a Coast Salish Nation in British Columbia, Canada, we used expert Indigenous knowledge and network analyses to chronicle differences in fisheries portfolios pre and post a social-ecological regime shift. We then evaluated key drivers of change using semi-structured interviews. We found that while portfolios decreased in diversity of seafood types harvested and consumed among individuals overtime, portfolios increased in their diversification at the community level because more similar seafoods within less diverse individual portfolios were more commonly harvested and consumed by the Nation as a whole. Thus, diversity can operate simultaneously in opposing directions at different scales of organization. Experts identified four key mechanisms driving these changes, including commercial activities controlled by a centralized governance regime, intergenerational knowledge loss, adaptive learning to new ecological and economic opportunities, and the trading of seafood with other Indigenous communities. Unexpectedly, increased predation by marine mammals was also flagged as a key driver of change. Adaptation strategies that support access to and governance of diverse fisheries, exchange of seafoods among communities, and knowledge transfer among generations would promote social-ecological resilience, food security, and community well-being.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Incorporating protected areas into global fish biomass projections under climate change
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
    The world has set ambitious goals to protect marine biodiversity and improve ocean health in the face of anthropogenic threats. Yet, the efficiency of spatial tools such as marine reserves to protect biodiversity is threatened as climate change shifts species distributions globally. Here, we investigate the ability of global marine reserves to protect fish biomass under future climate change scenarios. Moreover, we explore regional patterns and compare worlds with and without marine reserves. We rely on computer modeling to simulate an utopian world where all marine reserves thrive and ocean governance is effective. Results suggest that climate change will affect fish biomass in most marine reserves and their surrounding waters throughout the 21st century. The biomass change varies among regions, with tropical reserves losing biomass, temperate ones gaining, and polar reserves having mixed effects. Overall, a world with marine reserves will still be better off in terms of fish biomass than a world without marine reserves. Our study highlights the need to promote climate resilient conservation methods if we are to maintain and recover biodiversity in the ocean under a changing world.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Potential impacts of reduced seafood consumption on myocardial infarction among coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 13
    The objective of this study is to examine the potential cardiovascular risk of climate-related declines in seafood consumption among First Nations in British Columbia by assessing the combined effects of reduced omega-3 fatty acids and mercury intake from seafood on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in 2050 relative to 2009. The data were derived from the First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. Seafood consumption among 369 randomly selected participants was estimated, and hair mercury concentrations were measured. Declines in seafood consumption were modelled based on previously projected climate change scenarios, and the associated changes in nutrients and contaminants were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Reduced seafood consumption was projected to increase the risk of MI by 4.5%–6.5% among older individuals (≥50 years), by 1.9%–2.6% in men, and by 1.3%–1.8% in women under lower and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. Reduced seafood consumption may have profound cardiovascular implications. Effective strategies are needed to promote sustainable seafood harvests and access to seafood for coastal First Nations.