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  • OPEN ACCESS
    Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans
    FACETS • Vol. 5 • No. 1 • pp. 105 - 122
    Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Opposing trends in fisheries portfolio diversity at harvester and community scales signal opportunities for adaptation
    FACETS • Vol. 7 • pp. 1385 - 1410
    Understanding mechanisms that promote social-ecological resilience can inform future adaptation strategies. Among seafood dependent communities, these can be illuminated by assessing change among fisheries portfolios. Here, in collaboration with a Coast Salish Nation in British Columbia, Canada, we used expert Indigenous knowledge and network analyses to chronicle differences in fisheries portfolios pre and post a social-ecological regime shift. We then evaluated key drivers of change using semi-structured interviews. We found that while portfolios decreased in diversity of seafood types harvested and consumed among individuals overtime, portfolios increased in their diversification at the community level because more similar seafoods within less diverse individual portfolios were more commonly harvested and consumed by the Nation as a whole. Thus, diversity can operate simultaneously in opposing directions at different scales of organization. Experts identified four key mechanisms driving these changes, including commercial activities controlled by a centralized governance regime, intergenerational knowledge loss, adaptive learning to new ecological and economic opportunities, and the trading of seafood with other Indigenous communities. Unexpectedly, increased predation by marine mammals was also flagged as a key driver of change. Adaptation strategies that support access to and governance of diverse fisheries, exchange of seafoods among communities, and knowledge transfer among generations would promote social-ecological resilience, food security, and community well-being.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Incorporating protected areas into global fish biomass projections under climate change
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
    The world has set ambitious goals to protect marine biodiversity and improve ocean health in the face of anthropogenic threats. Yet, the efficiency of spatial tools such as marine reserves to protect biodiversity is threatened as climate change shifts species distributions globally. Here, we investigate the ability of global marine reserves to protect fish biomass under future climate change scenarios. Moreover, we explore regional patterns and compare worlds with and without marine reserves. We rely on computer modeling to simulate an utopian world where all marine reserves thrive and ocean governance is effective. Results suggest that climate change will affect fish biomass in most marine reserves and their surrounding waters throughout the 21st century. The biomass change varies among regions, with tropical reserves losing biomass, temperate ones gaining, and polar reserves having mixed effects. Overall, a world with marine reserves will still be better off in terms of fish biomass than a world without marine reserves. Our study highlights the need to promote climate resilient conservation methods if we are to maintain and recover biodiversity in the ocean under a changing world.