1. Introduction
Due to ever-increasing human pressures on the world’s oceans (
Halpern et al. 2019), marine biodiversity continues to be in significant decline globally (
Brondizio et al. 2019). As part of the attempt to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) have committed (under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework) to establishing ecologically-representative, well-connected, and equitably-governed networks of marine protected and conserved areas (hereafter referred to as MCAs) across 30% of their territories by 2030 (
CBD 2022). MCAs have primarily been designated to conserve and/or recover declining, depleted, rare or fragile species and habitats. However, over time, the scope of MCAs has expanded to include the protection and enhancement of ecosystem services and cultural values (
Roberts et al. 2003;
IUCN WCPA 2018;
Carr et al. 2019;
Humphreys and Clark 2020). As climate change accelerates, and impacts are felt across the world (
IPCC 2023), there is growing interest in the ability of MCAs to provide climate mitigation benefits, based on the protection and/or enhancement of natural carbon storage (
Howard et al. 2017;
Roberts et al. 2017;
Jacquemont et al. 2022;
Jankowska et al. 2022).
Although CO
2 fixation and organic carbon storage in marine habitats are insufficient and do not act on a long enough timescale to offset fossil fuel emissions (
Allen et al. 2022;
Fankhauser et al. 2022;
Cullenward et al. 2023;
Johannessen and Christian 2023), the conservation and restoration of natural marine carbon stores could help offset historical and continued emissions of CO
2 from habitat degradation and help to maintain the function of the marine environment as an ongoing carbon sink (
Girardin et al. 2021;
Allen et al. 2022;
Gao et al. 2022;
Matthews et al. 2022). This “blue carbon” potential was first described for, and continues to be focused on, coastal vegetated habitats—i.e., mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass meadows—which, like forests on land, can directly fix CO
2, store considerable amounts of organic carbon per unit area within their underlying soils/sediments and biomass, and have undergone substantial human-induced degradation (
Duarte et al. 2005;
Macreadie et al. 2021;
Vanderklift et al. 2022;
IPCC 2023). The conservation, restoration, and improved management of other marine habitats, including macroalgal forests (
Pessarrodona et al. 2023) and unvegetated seabed sediments (
Avelar et al. 2017;
Graves et al. 2022), are being increasingly discussed within this blue carbon framework (
Vanderklift et al. 2022;
Howard et al. 2023).
Seabed sediments are the ultimate carbon sink in the marine carbon cycle (
Burdige 2007;
Keil 2017). They are estimated to hold up to ∼2300 Gt of organic carbon in the top 1 m (
Atwood et al. 2020) and accumulate an additional 126–350 Mt per year (
Berner 1982;
Keil 2017;
Tegler et al. 2024). Due to their considerably larger spatial extent, this is approximately 7 times the global accumulation of all coastal vegetated blue carbon habitats combined, and around 200 times the carbon stock (
Howard et al. 2023). Organic carbon found within unvegetated seabed sediments originates from both marine and terrestrial sources (
Burdige 2007;
Middelburg 2019;
LaRowe et al. 2020). In total, it is estimated that around two thirds of organic carbon accumulation derives from marine primary production and one third from terrestrial sources (primarily from riverine inputs) (
Burdige 2007). However, there is significant variation depending on the environmental setting. For example, about 70% of the organic carbon in deltaic sediments is estimated to be from terrestrial sources, while the organic carbon in deep sea sediments is thought to be almost entirely marine derived (
Burdige 2007). Oceanic phytoplankton production and the resulting biological pump is thought to dominate marine organic carbon delivery and accumulation at the seabed (
Turner 2015;
Middelburg 2019); however, there is increasing evidence of lateral transport from primary production in coastal macrophyte dominated habitats (i.e., macroalgal beds, kelp forests, saltmarshes, seagrass beds, and mangroves) to unvegetated seabed sediments (
Middelburg 2019;
Santos et al. 2021;
Pessarrodona et al. 2023).
Continental margin sediments contain the highest carbon stocks per unit area in the ocean and the fastest carbon accumulation rates, accounting for about 85% of total annual carbon accumulation at the seafloor, and about 10% of the global ocean (
Berner 1982;
Seiter et al. 2004;
Lee et al. 2019). Fjord and deltaic sediments are known to be particular hotspots of organic carbon, in terms of both stocks and accumulation rates (
Smith et al. 2015). In contrast, deep-sea sediments have the lowest carbon accumulation and stocks per unit area in the ocean (
Lee et al. 2019;
Atwood et al. 2020;
Hayes et al. 2021); however, because they cover approximately 90% of the global seabed, deep-sea sediments are estimated to hold around 85% of total seabed sediment organic carbon standing stocks (
Burdige 2007;
Atwood et al. 2020). The composition of seabed sediments (i.e., the sediment type) is also known to be a strong indicator of carbon stock and accumulation rates (
Burdige 2007;
Diesing et al. 2021,
2024). Muddy, cohesive sediment is strongly correlated with higher organic carbon, while highly permeable, mobile, sandy sediment generally has very low organic carbon concentrations and low carbon accumulation rates (
Burdige 2007;
Diesing et al. 2021,
2024;
Epstein et al. 2024;
Smeaton et al. 2021).
Any human activity that disturbs seabed sediments has the potential to alter carbon storage (
Keil 2017;
Graves et al. 2022), particularly in muddy sediment (
Martín et al. 2014;
Black et al. 2022;
Smeaton and Austin 2022;
Zhang et al. 2023;
Porz et al. 2024;
Rooze et al. 2024). Widescale perturbation of seabed sediments could lead to significant remineralisation of stored organic carbon and reductions in further accumulation. Disruptive activities include shipping, dredging of shipping-access channels, disposal of dredge spoil, mineral extraction, bottom contact fishing, offshore energy development, deployment of cables and pipelines, and coastal development (
Korpinen et al. 2013;
Graves et al. 2022). These disruptive activities are most intense on continental shelves, where the distance to land and major human settlements is low, and there are fewer logistical and operational constraints (
Halpern et al. 2019;
Paolo et al. 2024); however, many of these activities are also expanding into the deep-sea (
Victorero et al. 2018;
Paulus 2021).
While the disturbance from many of these activities may be locally intense, mobile bottom fishing is by far the most pervasive and recurrent seabed disturbance—impacting at least 14% of the world’s continental shelves every 2–6 years, but varying greatly across regions, covering up to 80% of some continental shelf zones and often occurring multiple times in one year (
Amoroso et al. 2018;
Kroodsma et al. 2018). The impact of mobile bottom fishing is therefore expected to dominate overall human impact on seabed sediment carbon over larger spatial scales (
Korpinen et al. 2013;
Martín et al. 2014;
Oberle et al. 2016;
Keil 2017;
Sala et al. 2021;
Clare et al. 2023;
Heinatz and Scheffold 2023). For example, a recent study estimated that global fishing activities by bottom trawling could cause considerable remineralisation of seabed sediment organic carbon stocks (
Sala et al. 2021), with atmospheric emissions equivalent to ∼9%–11% of annual global emissions from land-use change (
Atwood et al. 2024). There are, however, major uncertainties regarding these results, as well as the magnitude and direction of effects from other human activities and across environmental settings (
Epstein et al. 2022;
Hilborn and Kaiser 2022;
Clare et al. 2023;
Heinatz and Scheffold 2023;
Hiddink et al. 2023). Even so, there are increasing calls to protect seabed sediment organic carbon stores to limit future disturbance and promote further carbon accumulation and storage (
Luisetti et al. 2020;
Avelar et al. 2017;
Black et al. 2022;
Epstein and Roberts 2023). While there is little precedent for this practice globally, a recently designated Highly Protected Marine Area in UK includes protection of “large areas of (subtidal) muddy habitats” specifically for their importance to “the storage of carbon” (
DEFRA 2023).
Canada's Exclusive Economic Zone covers 7.1 million km
2, an area equal to approximately 70% of its land mass and about 2% of the global ocean. The top 30 cm of seabed sediment on the continental margin is estimated to store approximately 10.9 Gt of organic carbon (
Epstein et al. 2024). As of October 2024, the Canadian MCA network covers 15.4% of the marine area, with 128 designations under a variety of governing bodies and legislative acts (
DFO 2023c,
2024). Canada has also committed to protecting 25% of its ocean within MCAs by 2025 and 30% by 2030 (
CBD 2022;
DFO 2023a,
2023c;
ECCC 2024). MCAs in Canada include Marine Protected Areas, National Marine Conservation Areas, Marine Parks, National Parks with marine components, Marine National Wildlife Areas, and fisheries-focused “Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures” (OECMs or Marine Refuges) (
DFO 2024). These MCAs have been designated to protect a range of benthic and pelagic marine biodiversity, as well as large-scale biogeographic features, fisheries resources, birds, terrestrial animals dependent on marine habitats, and associated sociological values (
DFO 2023c,
2024). Levels of protection and implemented management measures vary, depending on the designated features, legislative acts and times of designation. However, the Canadian Federal Marine Protected Areas Protection Standard (
DFO 2023b) prohibits bottom trawling, oil and gas, mining and dumping within all MCAs created after 2019.
Although the protection of habitats that capture and store carbon is defined as a potential benefit of MCA designation within Canada's National Framework for a Network of Marine Protected Areas (
DFO 2011) and also listed as a criterion for inclusion within the Guidance for Recognizing Marine OECMs (
DFO 2022), only vegetated blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., coastal salt marshes, seagrasses, and kelp forests) are specifically mentioned in this context (
DFO 2011;
Rubidge et al. 2024). Further, the department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada has a mandate to better understand ocean areas that have a high potential to absorb and store carbon and to better integrate climate impacts and vulnerability into conservation policy and management (
PMO 2021). Even so, no MCA has yet been designated explicitly considering the protection of stored carbon (
ECCC 2023). Combining carbon protection with climate vulnerability indices in marine protected area planning may help fill the current gap in explicit planning and management for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Canada's current, proposed and future protected areas (
Keen et al. 2024).
Here, we argue that including unvegetated seabed sediment habitats within Canada's expanding MCA network could prevent future emissions of carbon from these areas and protect areas of high carbon accumulation. We also use recently published spatial estimates of organic carbon in seabed sediments across the Canadian continental margin (
Epstein et al. 2024) to explore the extent to which the current and future MCA network protects this carbon store. Finally, we propose specific areas for future research that represent the highest potential for protection of existing sediment carbon stocks.
3. Protection of seabed sediment carbon in Canada's current and proposed MCA network
Protecting seabed sediments would preserve both their standing carbon stocks and their future accumulation potential. In the following spatial analyses, we concentrate on carbon stocks alone, primarily due to a lack of spatial data on seabed sediment carbon accumulation rates, but also because of the larger potential carbon benefit from protecting stocks and the more immediate outcome of emission avoidance rather than any additional carbon burial/removal which would occur over longer timelines and be more uncertain (
CCA 2022;
Sala et al. 2021) (
Table 1). We estimate (as of February 20204) that Canada's designated MCAs (see Supplementary Material for methods) encompass only about 10.8% of the country’s seabed sediment organic carbon stocks on the continental margin, equivalent to 1.17 Gt within the top 30 cm of sediment (uncertainty range 0.75–1.73 Gt) (
Fig. 2). The areas of the continental margin with the highest organic carbon stocks (>16.8 kg m
−3) are principally restricted to coastal and shelf areas of BC and the Canadian Atlantic (
Fig. 3), with just 1.0% in Arctic regions (Fig. S1). Designated MCAs cover only 13.4% of the high-carbon areas (
Fig. 3, Fig. S1). MCAs that encompass significant areas of high carbon sediments include those within the Laurentian Channel, the Emerald Basin Sponge Conservation Area on the Scotian Shelf, and the Gitxaala Nii Luutiksm/Kitkatla Conservancy Protected Area and Gwaii Haanas National Marine Conservation Area Reserve & Haida Heritage Site in northern BC (
Fig. 3).
Although planning processes, consultations and boundary decisions are still in progress, the best available data on current proposed and potential MCAs for contribution to Canada's targets to 2025 or beyond (as of February 2024 - see Supplementary Material) indicate that, if designated, these areas would provide protection to an additional estimated 8.8% of total continental margin carbon stocks (0.95 Gt; uncertainty range 0.62–1.39 Gt) (
Fig. 2), taking the total proportion under protection to 19.6%. This includes a further 6.1% of high carbon areas, which are primarily encompassed within the proposed Northern BC Shelf Bioregion network, the Southern Strait of Georgia and the Inner Bay of Fundy, thus leading to 19.5% of the high carbon areas being covered by designated and proposed/potential MCAs (
Fig. 3, Fig S1). Even though these MCAs were (or will be) designated solely for biodiversity conservation, the management measures adopted will in many cases provide a co-benefit to seabed sediment carbon protection, particularly if they overlap with high-carbon areas. Periodic monitoring of carbon stocks and accumulation rates would need to be implemented within MCAs if net carbon benefits want to be estimated and reported by managers to further justify site designations.
4. Priority areas for research and potential future spatial protections
We identify 274 priority areas that encompass the majority of the high carbon zones outside current and planned MCAs (
Fig. 4; see Supplementary Materials for further details). These priority areas were then ranked upon their: (1) mean carbon stock (including estimated uncertainty), (2) total carbon stock (including estimated uncertainty), (3) estimated mean mud content, (4) distance to shore (with muddier areas closer to shore prioritised due to the organic carbon being potentially of higher reactivity and vulnerability) (
Smeaton et al. 2021;
Black et al. 2022;
Zhang et al. 2024), and (5) the proportion of the area which lies within Ecologically and Biologically Significant Areas (
DFO 2021) (see Supplementary Materials). The sum of these 5 rankings was taken as a general metric for potential overall priority for future research and precautionary protection (
Fig. 4). Most of the highest priority areas (ranks 1–10) were situated in bioregions of BC (
Table 2), including the Queen Charlotte Strait and northern Salish Sea, as well as many of the fjords and inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and mainland BC (
Fig. 4, Fig. S2). Priority areas with the next highest rankings (11–30) were largely within the Atlantic bioregions (
Table 2), specifically in Placentia, Passamaquoddy, Mahone and Trinity bays, parts of the Laurentian Channel and the northern and southern ends of Scotian Shelf (
Fig. 4, Fig. S2). It could be equally relevant to rank areas on a subset of these factors, and/or individual characteristics alone, e.g., carbon density. Individual rankings and estimated carbon values are presented in the Supplementary Material and supporting data products to facilitate alternative ranking schemes.
Data gaps which should be addressed prior to designation include site-specific spatial mapping of seabed sediment habitats and in situ measurements of organic carbon stocks and accumulation rates to confirm the presence and distribution of high-density carbon stocks or potential for future accumulation, where data are lacking (e.g.,
Brenan et al. 2024). Data on the composition and lability of the organic carbon stocks would also provide information on the likelihood of remineralisation if disturbed, compared with the rate of remineralisation in undisturbed sediments (
Graves et al. 2022;
Smeaton and Austin 2022).
Although most of the Canadian continental margin is situated within the Arctic, the best available data suggest that these regions do not contain especially high carbon densities outside of current or proposed MCAs; they are therefore not selected as priority areas in this study (Fig. S1). Emerging research does, however, suggest that as sea ice extent and thickness reduce as a result of climate change, carbon accumulation in seabed sediments of the polar regions could increase due to higher levels of primary production and reduced disturbance to the seafloor from ice scour (
Barnes 2018;
Armstrong et al. 2020;
Barnes et al. 2021;
Attard et al. 2024). In the Antarctic this has been proposed as a potentially important negative feedback mechanism to anthropogenic climate change (
Barnes et al. 2021;
Bax et al. 2021). Evidence from Arctic regions, however, has shown that these changes are not uniform in magnitude, with the opposite effect also reported (
Macdonald et al. 2015;
Faust et al. 2020;
Souster et al. 2020;
März et al. 2022;
Attard et al. 2024;
Sen et al. 2024).
Even so, reduced sea ice extent is expected to lead to increased human activities in the Arctic Ocean, with potential for increased seafloor disturbance and, therefore, perturbation of organic carbon stores and accumulation (
Keil 2017;
Fauchald et al. 2021;
Huntington et al. 2022;
März et al. 2022). Precautionary protection could be considered for seabed sediments within the Arctic that have relatively high carbon densities and that also currently lie outside of the Canadian MCA network, such as the Foxe Basin, the Beaufort Shelf and Canadian Arctic fjords (
Fig. 2) (
Smith et al. 2015). As discussed above, significant data gaps remain, with respect to fully quantifying the organic carbon stocks and accumulation rates, the risk of disturbance, and the vulnerability of resuspended and disturbed organic carbon to remineralisation.
Rather than focusing only on the precautionary protection of seabed sediments, by also including data on both current and projected human disturbance levels in high carbon areas, prioritisations could be made based on the potential for carbon benefits from removal and/or prohibition of human activities. To fully calculate potential carbon benefits from protection, site-specific information would be required on the current and future levels of sediment disturbance from each human stressor as well as their combined net effects on carbon stocks and accumulation rates (
Verra 2020;
Epstein et al. 2022). Further, when spatial restrictions are placed on human activities or marine industries there is the potential for effort displacement, whereby a proportion, or the entirety of a prohibited activity simply moves to a new location (
Vaughan 2017). The potential for activity displacement and the net effects on total seabed sediment carbon disturbance, stocks and accumulation rates should also be incorporated where possible (
Epstein and Roberts 2022). Detailed data of this resolution are lacking at both country-wide and site-specific scales and should be a priority for future research. Additionally, the prohibition or exclusion of human activities also necessitates the consideration of numerous sociological, economic and ecological costs and benefits (
Davis et al. 2019;
Oyafuso et al. 2020). The potential effects on seabed sediment carbon could become just one component of the analysis and prioritisation processes within MCA planning and management.