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- OPEN ACCESSWe examine the importance of the rock weathering feedback mechanism during the last deglacial period (∼16 000–4000 BCE) using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM)) with four box-model parameterizations of terrestrial weathering. The deglacial climate change is driven by changes in orbital parameters, ice core reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 variability, and prescribed removal of continental ice sheets. Over the course of the 12 000 year simulation period, increases in weathering provide a mechanism that slowly removes CO2 from the atmosphere, in opposition to the observed atmospheric CO2 increase during this period. These processes transfer both carbon and alkalinity to the ocean, the combination of which results in as much as a 1000 Pg C increase in total ocean carbon, relative to a control simulation with constant weathering. However, the rapid expansion of northern hemisphere vegetation introduces a significant uncertainty among the weathering parameterizations. Further experiments to test the individual impacts of weathering dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity fluxes on ocean biogeochemistry suggest that the worldwide distribution of rock types and the ratio of carbonate to silicate weathering may be crucially important in obtaining an accurate estimate of changes in global weathering rates.
- OPEN ACCESSCities are under pressure to operate their services effectively and project costs of operations across various timeframes. In high-latitude and high-altitude urban centers, snow management is one of the larger unknowns and has both operational and budgetary limitations. Snowfall and snow depth observations within urban environments are important to plan snow clearing and prepare for the effects of spring runoff on cities’ drainage systems. In-house research functions are expensive, but one way to overcome that expense and still produce effective data is through citizen science. In this paper, we examine the potential to use citizen science for snowfall data collection in urban environments. A group of volunteers measured daily snowfall and snow depth at an urban site in Saskatoon (Canada) during two winters. Reliability was assessed with a statistical consistency analysis and a comparison with other data sets collected around Saskatoon. We found that citizen-science-derived data were more reliable and relevant for many urban management stakeholders. Feedback from the participants demonstrated reflexivity about social learning and a renewed sense of community built around generating reliable and useful data. We conclude that citizen science holds great potential to improve data provision for effective and sustainable city planning and greater social learning benefits overall.
- OPEN ACCESS
- Megan L. Larsen,
- Helen M. Baulch,
- Sherry L. Schiff,
- Dana F. Simon,
- Sébastien Sauvé, and
- Jason J. Venkiteswaran
The increasing prevalence of cyanobacteria-dominated harmful algal blooms is strongly associated with nutrient loading and changing climatic patterns. Changes to precipitation frequency and intensity, as predicted by current climate models, are likely to affect bloom development and composition through changes in nutrient fluxes and water column mixing. However, few studies have directly documented the effects of extreme precipitation events on cyanobacterial composition, biomass, and toxin production. We tracked changes in a eutrophic reservoir following an extreme precipitation event, describing an atypically early toxin-producing cyanobacterial bloom and successional progression of the phytoplankton community, toxins, and geochemistry. An increase in bioavailable phosphorus by more than 27-fold in surface waters preceded notable increases in Aphanizomenon flos-aquae throughout the reservoir approximately 2 weeks postevent and ∼5 weeks before blooms typically occur. Anabaenopeptin-A and three microcystin congeners (microcystin-LR, -YR, and -RR) were detected at varying levels across sites during the bloom period, which lasted between 3 and 5 weeks. These findings suggest extreme rainfall can trigger early cyanobacterial bloom initiation, effectively elongating the bloom season period of potential toxicity. However, effects will vary depending on factors including the timing of rainfall and reservoir physical structure. - OPEN ACCESSMany barriers to behavioural change exist when it comes to climate change action. A key element to overcoming some of these barriers is effective communication of complex scientific information. The use of visualizations, such as photographs or interactive maps, can increase knowledge dissemination, helping community members understand climatic and environmental changes. These techniques have been utilized in many disciplines but have not been widely embraced by climate change scholars. This paper discusses the utility of climate change data visualization as a tool for climate change knowledge mobilization. This paper draws on the case studying drivers of coastline change of Lake Ontario in the Town of Lincoln, Ontario, Canada. Historical aerial photographs were used to measure the rate of coastline change and visualize vulnerable sections of the coast. To better visualize the changes that occurred over time from a resident viewpoint, selected land-based historical photographs were replicated by taking new photographs at the same locations. These visualization tools can be useful to support the community in developing strategies to adapt to climate change by increasing understanding of the changes and knowledge through social learning. These tools can be generalized to other case studies dealing with community engagement in coastal adaptation efforts.
- OPEN ACCESS
- Krishna Bahadur KC,
- Arthur Gill Green,
- Dan Wassmansdorf,
- Vivek Gandhi,
- Khurram Nadeem, and
- Evan D.G. Fraser
Climate change will create warmer temperatures, greater precipitation, and longer growing seasons in northern latitudes making agriculture increasingly possible in boreal regions. To assess the potential of any such expansion, this paper provides a first-order approximation of how much land could become suitable for four staple crops (corn, potato, soy, and wheat) in Canada by 2080. In addition, we estimate how the environmental trade-offs of northern agricultural expansion will impact critical ecosystem services. Primarily, we evaluate how the regulatory ecosystem services of carbon storage and sequestration and the habitat services supporting biodiversity would be traded for the provisioning services of food production. Here we show that under climate change projected by Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, ∼1.85 million km2 of land may become suitable for farming in Canada’s North, which, if utilized, would lead to the release of ∼15 gigatonnes of carbon if all forests and wetlands are cleared and plowed. These land-use changes would also have profound implications for Indigenous sovereignty and the governance of protected and conserved areas in Canada. These results highlight that research is urgently needed so that stakeholders can become aware of the scope of potential economic opportunities, cultural issues, and environmental trade-offs required for agricultural sustainability in Canada. - OPEN ACCESSThis paper reviews a century of Kwakwaka’wakw knowledge on ecological, climate, and social change. We trace the era of Indigenous governance (about the precolonial period), especially from about 1910 to the devastation of the flood in Dzawada’enuxw First Nation territory in Kingcome, British Columbia, in 2010. This time period has been chosen as the assessment period as this is the lifetime of the 10 Elders that we collaborated with to understand and position change during this tumultuous era. We call the results of this process “a century of knowledge”. Ecological, social, and climate change are positioned with scientific literature for potential divergence/convergence. Almost all aspects of the Kwakwaka’wakw home area have undergone large-scale changes including clear-cut forestry, salmon farms, climate change affecting species ranges, cultural impositions, and colonial processes working to destroy Indigenous governance. Despite these imposed changes, the communities emerge as survivors on their own terms, including using the traditional feast system known as the Potlatch to come to terms with the devastation of the 2010 flood and beyond.
- OPEN ACCESS
- M. Morison,
- N.J. Casson,
- S. Mamet,
- J. Davenport,
- T. Livingston,
- L.A. Fishback,
- H. White, and
- A. Windsor
Amplified warming in subarctic regions is having measurable impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem processes. At the boundary of the discontinuous and continuous permafrost zones, and at the northern extent of the boreal forest, the Hudson Bay Lowlands has experienced, and is projected to continue to experience dramatic rates of climate change in the coming decades. In this review, we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the Hudson Bay Lowlands and other environmental processes that mediate these impacts. We surveyed published literature from the region to identify climate indicators associated with impacts on snowpacks, ponds, vegetation, and wood frogs. These climate indicators were calculated using statistically downscaled climate projections, and the potential impacts on ecosystem processes are discussed. While there is a strong trend towards longer and warmer summers, associated changes in the vegetation community mean that snowpacks are not necessarily decreasing, which is important for freshwater ponds dependent on snowmelt recharge. A clear throughline is that the impacts on these ecosystem processes are complex, interconnected, and nonlinear. This review provides a framework for understanding the ways in which climate change has and will affect subarctic regions. - OPEN ACCESS
- P.J. Duke,
- B. Richaud,
- R. Arruda,
- J. Länger,
- K. Schuler,
- P. Gooya,
- M.M.M. Ahmed,
- M.R. Miller,
- C.A. Braybrook,
- K. Kam,
- R. Piunno,
- Y. Sezginer,
- G. Nickoloff, and
- A.C. Franco
Improving our understanding of how the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide is critical to climate change mitigation efforts. We, a group of early career ocean professionals working in Canada, summarize current research and identify steps forward to improve our understanding of the marine carbon sink in Canadian national and offshore waters. We have compiled an extensive collection of reported surface ocean air–sea carbon dioxide exchange values within each of Canada's three adjacent ocean basins. We review the current understanding of air–sea carbon fluxes and identify major challenges limiting our understanding in the Pacific, the Arctic, and the Atlantic Ocean. We focus on ways of reducing uncertainty to inform Canada's carbon stocktake, establish baselines for marine carbon dioxide removal projects, and support efforts to mitigate and adapt to ocean acidification. Future directions recommended by this group include investing in maturing and building capacity in the use of marine carbon sensors, improving ocean biogeochemical models fit-for-purpose in regional and ocean carbon dioxide removal applications, creating transparent and robust monitoring, verification, and reporting protocols for marine carbon dioxide removal, tailoring community-specific approaches to co-generate knowledge with First Nations, and advancing training opportunities for early career ocean professionals in marine carbon science and technology. - OPEN ACCESS
- Lesya Marushka,
- Xue Feng Hu,
- Tiff-Annie Kenny,
- Malek Batal,
- Karen Fediuk,
- Tonio Sadik,
- Christopher D. Golden,
- William W. L. Cheung,
- Anne K. Salomon, and
- Hing Man Chan
The objective of this study is to examine the potential cardiovascular risk of climate-related declines in seafood consumption among First Nations in British Columbia by assessing the combined effects of reduced omega-3 fatty acids and mercury intake from seafood on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in 2050 relative to 2009. The data were derived from the First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. Seafood consumption among 369 randomly selected participants was estimated, and hair mercury concentrations were measured. Declines in seafood consumption were modelled based on previously projected climate change scenarios, and the associated changes in nutrients and contaminants were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Reduced seafood consumption was projected to increase the risk of MI by 4.5%–6.5% among older individuals (≥50 years), by 1.9%–2.6% in men, and by 1.3%–1.8% in women under lower and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. Reduced seafood consumption may have profound cardiovascular implications. Effective strategies are needed to promote sustainable seafood harvests and access to seafood for coastal First Nations. - OPEN ACCESS
- Ha Pham and
- Marc Saner
Inclusion has been gaining increased attention in various domains, including education and the workplace, as well as development, governance, urbanization, and innovation. However, in the context of climate change adaptation (CCA), the concept of “inclusiveness” remains comparatively underexplored, with no overarching framework available. This gap is crucial, given the global scope and multifaceted nature of climate change, which demands a comprehensive and inclusive approach. In this article, we address this deficiency by developing a comprehensive conceptualization of inclusive climate change adaptation (ICCA). Grounded in ethical analysis, our framework is presented for discussion and practical testing. We identify nine specific priority areas and propose one to two qualitative indicators for each, resulting in a suite of 15 indicators for the evaluation of ICCA policies. This research not only highlights the urgency of incorporating inclusiveness into CCA, but it also provides a practical framework by which to guide policymakers, practitioners, and researchers in this critical endeavor. By acknowledging and accommodating diverse value systems and considering the entire policy process, from conception to evaluation, we aim to foster a more inclusive and sustainable approach to CCA. - OPEN ACCESSSince the beginning of its large-scale production in the early 20th century, plastics have remained an important material in widespread use throughout modern society. Nevertheless, despite possessing many benefits, plastics are resistant to degradation and instead accumulate in the ocean and terrestrial sediments, thereby potentially affecting marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Plastics release CO2 throughout their entire lifecycle; during the extraction of materials used in their production, through plastic–carbon leaching in the marine and terrestrial environment, and during their different end-of-life scenarios, which include recycling, landfill, and incineration. Here, we use the University of Victoria earth system climate model to quantity the effects on atmospheric CO2 and the ocean carbon cycle by using upper-bound estimates of carbon emissions from marine plastic–carbon leaching or land-based incineration. Despite the suggestions of some, our results indicate that it has only a very minor influence and an insignificant effect on the earth's global climate system. This holds even if plastic contamination increases well beyond current levels. On the other hand, carbon emissions associated with plastic production and incineration have a greater impact on climate while still dwarfed by emissions associated with the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and other anthropogenic sources. Our results have important policy implications for ongoing United Nations Environment Programme Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution negotiations.
- OPEN ACCESS