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  • OPEN ACCESS
    Canada's marine carbon sink: an early career perspective on the state of research and existing knowledge gaps
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 21
    Improving our understanding of how the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide is critical to climate change mitigation efforts. We, a group of early career ocean professionals working in Canada, summarize current research and identify steps forward to improve our understanding of the marine carbon sink in Canadian national and offshore waters. We have compiled an extensive collection of reported surface ocean air–sea carbon dioxide exchange values within each of Canada's three adjacent ocean basins. We review the current understanding of air–sea carbon fluxes and identify major challenges limiting our understanding in the Pacific, the Arctic, and the Atlantic Ocean. We focus on ways of reducing uncertainty to inform Canada's carbon stocktake, establish baselines for marine carbon dioxide removal projects, and support efforts to mitigate and adapt to ocean acidification. Future directions recommended by this group include investing in maturing and building capacity in the use of marine carbon sensors, improving ocean biogeochemical models fit-for-purpose in regional and ocean carbon dioxide removal applications, creating transparent and robust monitoring, verification, and reporting protocols for marine carbon dioxide removal, tailoring community-specific approaches to co-generate knowledge with First Nations, and advancing training opportunities for early career ocean professionals in marine carbon science and technology.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Barriers to implementation of dynamic reference points in fisheries management
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 10
    Fish populations are dynamic; their productivity depends on the environment, predator and prey interactions, and fisheries harvest rates. Failure to account for these factors in fisheries science and management can lead to a misestimation of stock dynamics and productivity, resulting in overexploitation or forgone fisheries yield. Using an online survey, we asked fisheries scientists, industry stakeholders, Indigenous partners, and non-governmental organizations whether changing ecosystem productivity was a problem in their experience, how often dynamic approaches to fisheries reference points have been adopted, what methods had been used, and what fisheries they had been applied to. Changing fisheries or ecosystem productivity was reported as an issue by 96% of respondents; however, 74% of respondents said they had never seen dynamic reference points implemented, 16% said in very few instances, while 10% said frequently. The most common barriers to implementation of dynamic approaches in fisheries management were institutional inertia and uncertainty about whether a change in productivity was lasting. We discuss trade-offs between fisheries management performance and stability.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    British Columbia freshwater salmon hatcheries demonstrate minimal contribution to piscine orthoreovirus (PRV) regional occurrence with no evidence for nonendemic strain introductions
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 9
    Piscine orthoreovirus genotype 1 (PRV-1) is a common virus in farmed and wild salmon in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Its regional occurrence in freshwater is far less clear. From 2019 to 2021, tissues of 5619 juvenile anadromous salmon (primarily Atlantic, Chinook, and coho) sampled from 12 commercial and 27 enhancement British Columbia hatcheries during 83 sampling events were screened for PRV-1 prior to seawater entry. More than 2200 (∼40%) were also screened using a Pan-PRV assay targeting all known PRV genotypes. PRV-1 was detected in four coho salmon at two freshwater enhancement facilities and in one Chinook salmon at a commercial facility. Partial (S1 segment) genome sequencing identified detections to be of the PRV-1 subgenotype endemic to the northeastern Pacific. PRV-1 was not detected (5611 individuals; 99.9%) or test results were inconclusive (3 individuals; 0.05%) for all remaining samples screened for PRV-1. PRV-2 and PRV-3 were not detected using the Pan-PRV assay. It is concluded that commercial and enhancement freshwater hatcheries of British Columbia contribute minimally to the prevalence and persistence of PRV-1 in anadromous salmon of the northeastern Pacific, and these hatcheries appear not to have contracted or participated in the distribution of nonendemic forms of PRV in recent years.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Baseline composition, quantity, and condition of bycatch in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence spring and summer American lobster fisheries
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 17
    The impact of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery on species bycatch is currently unknown. The composition of the incidental catch, both nonharvestable lobster (by fisheries regulations) and nonlobster species, was systematically collected over the 2015 spring and summer fishing seasons. A total of 51 948 (7147 were nonlobster taxa) individual organisms weighing 13 987.60 kg (1223.91 kg of nonlobster taxa) were captured as bycatch during 73 fishing trips. By weight per trip, the most common lobster bycatch were undersized male and females, and the highest nonlobster species catch were Atlantic rock crab (Cancer irroratus). A semiquantitative assessment of injury and vitality was applied to bycatch as a proxy for discard mortality. The majority of the individuals assessed for visible injury were deemed uninjured (98% both fish and invertebrates); however, postrelease mortality was not measured. A smaller study in 2019 corroborated the 2015 catches and supported current assumptions that the passive gear type, the low diversity of bycatch, and the rapid hand-sorting of the trap minimize the impact of the lobster fishery on incidentally captured taxa. Further scientific monitoring is recommended to better account for all sources of mortality in stock assessments and rebuilding plans.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Potential impacts of reduced seafood consumption on myocardial infarction among coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 13
    The objective of this study is to examine the potential cardiovascular risk of climate-related declines in seafood consumption among First Nations in British Columbia by assessing the combined effects of reduced omega-3 fatty acids and mercury intake from seafood on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in 2050 relative to 2009. The data were derived from the First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. Seafood consumption among 369 randomly selected participants was estimated, and hair mercury concentrations were measured. Declines in seafood consumption were modelled based on previously projected climate change scenarios, and the associated changes in nutrients and contaminants were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Reduced seafood consumption was projected to increase the risk of MI by 4.5%–6.5% among older individuals (≥50 years), by 1.9%–2.6% in men, and by 1.3%–1.8% in women under lower and upper climate change scenarios, respectively. Reduced seafood consumption may have profound cardiovascular implications. Effective strategies are needed to promote sustainable seafood harvests and access to seafood for coastal First Nations.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Community science to the rescue: capturing water quality data during the COVID-19 pandemic
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 12
    In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted all aspects of human activity, including environmental research and monitoring. Despite a lack of laboratory access and other restrictive measures, we adapted an existing community science monitoring program to continue through the summer of 2020. We worked with local community groups to recruit 58 volunteers who collected lake water samples from 60 sites on 16 lakes in south-central Ontario from June to September 2020. We organized drop-off depots and had volunteers freeze samples to monitor nearshore nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) and chlorophyll-a. A survey was distributed to volunteers to analyze lake-front property owners’ activities during the pandemic. We found spatial patterns in nearshore water quality across the lakes, with sub-watershed development being a significant predictor of nutrients and chlorophyll-a. Additionally, pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic (2020 and 2021) nutrient concentrations were compared, but there was no clear impact of the pandemic on nearshore nutrient concentrations, despite changes in lake-front property owners activities. Overall, this study demonstrated the ability of community science to provide water quality data on a large spatial scale despite a major societal disruption, providing insight into regional nutrient trends during the first year of the pandemic.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Framework and proposed indicators for the comprehensive evaluation of inclusiveness: the case of climate change adaptation
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 15
    Inclusion has been gaining increased attention in various domains, including education and the workplace, as well as development, governance, urbanization, and innovation. However, in the context of climate change adaptation (CCA), the concept of “inclusiveness” remains comparatively underexplored, with no overarching framework available. This gap is crucial, given the global scope and multifaceted nature of climate change, which demands a comprehensive and inclusive approach. In this article, we address this deficiency by developing a comprehensive conceptualization of inclusive climate change adaptation (ICCA). Grounded in ethical analysis, our framework is presented for discussion and practical testing. We identify nine specific priority areas and propose one to two qualitative indicators for each, resulting in a suite of 15 indicators for the evaluation of ICCA policies. This research not only highlights the urgency of incorporating inclusiveness into CCA, but it also provides a practical framework by which to guide policymakers, practitioners, and researchers in this critical endeavor. By acknowledging and accommodating diverse value systems and considering the entire policy process, from conception to evaluation, we aim to foster a more inclusive and sustainable approach to CCA.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
    Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    A social–ecological geography of southern Canadian lakes
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 16
    Anthropogenic pressures, including urban and agricultural expansion, can negatively influence a lake's capacity to provide aquatic ecosystem services (ES). However, identifying lakes most at risk of losing their ES (i.e., higher vulnerability) requires integrating information on lake ecological state, global change threats, and ES use. Here, we provide a social–ecological framework that combines these features within a regional context by evaluating the ecological state of 659 lakes across Canada. Using the deviation of impacted lakes from reference ones, we identified much higher total nitrogen and chloride concentrations as the main indicators of an altered lake ecological state in all regions identified. Lake ecological state was mapped using an additive colour model along with regional scores of threat levels and recreational ES use. Urban and agriculturally developed areas were linked to higher lake vulnerability and ES loss. Lakes in Southern Ontario were most concerning, being highly altered, under threat, and heavily used. Lakes near coastal urban centers were altered and used, but less threatened, whereas those in the Prairies were altered and threatened, but less used. Our novel framework provides the first social–ecological geography of Canadian lakes, and is a promising tool to assess lake state and vulnerability at scales relevant for management.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks in Alberta using 2-scale sampling and 3D predictive soil mapping
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 17
    A three-dimensional predictive soil mapping approach for predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks (t/ha) at high spatial resolution (30 m) for Alberta for 2020–2021 is described. A remote sensing data stack was first prepared covering Alberta’s agricultural lands. A total of 404 sampling locations were distributed across Alberta using 2-scale sampling: (1) 22 pilot farms representing main climatic zones and (2) conditioned Latin hypercube sampling at each farm. Soil samples were taken at four standard depths (0–15, 15–30, 30–60, 60–100 cm) using soil probes and analyzed for SOC. Predictive models for SOC content and bulk density were built separately and then used to predict at 0, 15, 30, 60, and 100 cm and calculate aggregated SOC stocks per pixel. The SOC content and bulk density models had R squares of 0.61 and 0.68, respectively. Based on these mapping results, grassland soils were consistently associated with higher SOC stocks across all soil types as compared to croplands. The average SOC stock increase for grassland soils compared to cropland soils was 2.1 Mg per hectare, ranging from 2.17 to 6.09 Mg per hectare depending on soil type. Results also showed that >15 % of total SOC stocks were located in subsoil, which was higher than expected.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    A temporal record of microplastic accumulation in sediment cores of the Great Lakes, North America, reflects macroeconomic and regional influences
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 10
    Documented plastic pollution throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes system prompted investigation of microplastics (MPs) in sediment cores. We examined offshore sediment cores from Lake Huron (LH43) and Lake Ontario (403A) to understand temporal trends and changes in microplastic (MP) pollution in the size range 53 µm to 2 mm. MP abundances varied from 18.1 to 280.1 particles per g of dry weight sediment (N g−1 dw) in LH43, and 8.2–488.4 g−1 dw in core 403A. The 15 cm cores are equivalent to 56 years of accumulation in Lake Huron and 72 years of accumulation in Lake Ontario. Analysis of the two cores shows an increasing trend in MP accumulation from 1964 to 1989, which mirrors the global plastic production rate. Subsequent peaks and troughs in the MP abundance profiles reflect macroeconomic changes and regional controls. These results show how changing abundances of MPs in lake sediment cores can act as proxies for global perturbations in oil supply as well as national economic shifts.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Impact of plastic pollution on atmospheric carbon dioxide
    FACETS • Vol. 8 • pp. 1 - 7
    Since the beginning of its large-scale production in the early 20th century, plastics have remained an important material in widespread use throughout modern society. Nevertheless, despite possessing many benefits, plastics are resistant to degradation and instead accumulate in the ocean and terrestrial sediments, thereby potentially affecting marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Plastics release CO2 throughout their entire lifecycle; during the extraction of materials used in their production, through plastic–carbon leaching in the marine and terrestrial environment, and during their different end-of-life scenarios, which include recycling, landfill, and incineration. Here, we use the University of Victoria earth system climate model to quantity the effects on atmospheric CO2 and the ocean carbon cycle by using upper-bound estimates of carbon emissions from marine plastic–carbon leaching or land-based incineration. Despite the suggestions of some, our results indicate that it has only a very minor influence and an insignificant effect on the earth's global climate system. This holds even if plastic contamination increases well beyond current levels. On the other hand, carbon emissions associated with plastic production and incineration have a greater impact on climate while still dwarfed by emissions associated with the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and other anthropogenic sources. Our results have important policy implications for ongoing United Nations Environment Programme Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution negotiations.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Historical gold mining increased metal(loid) concentrations in lake sediments from Nova Scotia, Canada
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 14
    Historical gold mining operations between the 1860s and 1940s have left substantial quantities of arsenic- and mercury-rich tailings near abandoned mines in remote and urban areas of Nova Scotia, Canada. Large amounts of materials from the tailings have entered the surface waters of downstream aquatic ecosystems at concentrations that present a risk to benthos. We used paleolimnological approaches to examine long-term trends in sedimentary metal(loid) concentrations, assess potential sediment toxicity, and determine if geochemical recovery has occurred at four lakes located downstream of three productive gold-mining districts. During the historical mining era, sedimentary total arsenic and mercury concentrations and enrichment factors increased substantially at all downstream lakes that received inputs from tailings. Similarly, chromium, lead, and zinc concentrations increased in the sediments after mining activities began and the urbanization that followed. The calculated probable effects of concentration quotients (PEC-Qs) for sediments exceeded the probable biological effects threshold (PEC-Q > 2) during the mining era. Although sedimentary metal(loid) concentrations have decreased for most elements in recent sediments, relatively higher PEC-Q and continued exceedance of Canadian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines suggest that complete geochemical recovery has not occurred. It is likely that surface runoff from tailing fields, urbanization, and climate-mediated changes are impacting geochemical recovery trajectories.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Ideal free distributions form across a regulatory boundary in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Division 4X and 5Z groundfish fisheries
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 9
    We used isodars, developed from the ideal free distribution (IFD), to predict the distribution of fishing effort across regulatory boundaries in the south-western Scotian Shelf’s haddock fishery. Our analysis was focused around the boundary between Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization’s Divisions 4X and 5Z. While effort within 4X was related to the standardized catch value and effort experienced along the 4X–5Z boundary, most effort predictions across the boundary were also accurate. Accuracy of these cross-boundary isodars suggests that a high degree of movement across the boundary meets the IFD assumption of free movement and thus, effort on one side of the boundary is related to fishing success on the other side of the boundary. Fisheries management strategies should adopt a broad view that encompasses adjacent regulatory regions to understand where vessels may choose to fish when multiple regulatory regions are accessible. In fisheries where isodars describe effort distributions across a regulatory boundary, the relative abundance of the underlying fish population could be better indicated by effort distribution among regulatory regions than by catch rates.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    River influence on mercury bioaccumulation in the coastal food web of Eeyou Istchee, James Bay, Canada
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 13
    Spatial patterns of bioaccumulated mercury were evaluated in coastal marine food webs of east Hudson Bay and east James Bay in the boreal subarctic of Canada. Two marine species, blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and common eider ducks (Somateria mollissima) that consume mussels, were collected by a regional community-based monitoring network established in five communities. Stable isotope tracers (carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and mercury) were measured to evaluate environmental drivers of mercury spatial patterns. Mercury concentrations of blue mussels and common eiders were twofold and fivefold higher, respectively, on the James Bay coast near the community of Chisasibi compared to sites in east Hudson Bay. Liver and muscle mercury concentrations of eiders from James Bay are among the highest values reported for the circumpolar subarctic and Arctic. Multiple lines of evidence (mercury spatial patterns, crustal elements in blue mussels, and mercury isotope values of common eiders) suggest elevated mercury in the coastal food web of east James Bay may be due to mercury loading from the La Grande River, which drains one of the largest hydroelectric developments in the world. These findings highlight the importance of further research on environmental processes linking large rivers to mercury bioaccumulation in northern coastal food webs.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Assessing climate change vulnerability in Canadian marine conservation networks: implications for conservation planning and resilience
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 15
    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are critical in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem functions under climate change. The long-term effectiveness of these static conservation measures will depend on how well they represent current and future ocean changes. Here, we use the Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity to assess the vulnerability representation of marine ecosystems within the Canadian marine conservation network (CMCN) under two divergent emissions scenarios. We found that MPAs best represent climate vulnerability in Atlantic Canada (85% representativity overall, and 93% in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence under low emissions), followed by the Pacific (78%) and Arctic (63%; lowest in the Eastern Arctic (41% under high emissions) regions). Notably, MPAs with lower climate vulnerability are proportionally overrepresented in the CMCN. Broad-scale geographic targets employed in the Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy network planning process achieve over 90% representativity of climate vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of ensuring habitat representativity and geographic distribution in conservation planning to enhance climate resilience, even if not explicitly prioritized. Moving towards Canada’s target to protect 30% of its waters by 2030, prioritizing representativity and designation of MPAs in currently underrepresented climate-vulnerable regions may be crucial to enhancing the resilience of the CMCN amidst an ever-changing climate.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Evaluating the design of the first marine protected area network in Pacific Canada under a changing climate
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 18
    Marine protected area (MPAs) networks can buffer marine ecosystems from the impacts of climate change by allowing species to redistribute as conditions change and by reducing other stressors. There are, however, few examples where climate change has been considered in MPA network design. In this paper, we assess how climate change considerations were integrated into the design of a newly released MPA network in the Northern Shelf Bioregion in British Columbia, Canada, and then evaluate the resulting network against projected physical and biogeochemical changes and biological responses. We found that representation, replication, and size and spacing recommendations integrated into the design phase were met in most cases. Furthermore, despite varying degrees of projected changes in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and aragonite saturation across the MPA network, suitable habitat for demersal fish species is projected to remain in the network despite some redistribution among sites. We also found that mid-depth MPAs are particularly important for persistence, as fish are projected to move deeper to avoid warming in shallower areas. Our results highlight that a representative MPA network with adequate replication, that incorporates areas of varying climate change trajectory, should buffer against the impacts of climate change.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Estimating size-at-harvest from Indigenous archaeological clamshell assemblages in Coastal British Columbia
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 15
    Shellfish have supported Indigenous lifeways on the Pacific Coast of North America for millennia. Despite the ubiquity of clamshells in archaeological sites, shell size measurements are rarely reported due to a lack of applicable basis for generating size estimates from fragmentary remains. We present a linear regression-based method for determining shell length from hinge and umbo measurements of littleneck (Leukoma staminea; n = 239), butter (Saxidomus gigantea; n = 274), and horse (Tresus nuttallii; n = 92) clams using both contemporary and archaeological shells collected from three regions in coastal British Columbia, Canada. We examine the accuracy of these size estimations, which indicate that 83%–97% of the variability in dorsal shell length is predicted by umbo thickness and hinge length. Hinge length generated higher R2 values yet exhibited greater intra- and inter-observer error. While the predicted dorsal length for each species differed by region, this size difference was smaller than intra- and inter-observer error, suggesting broad applicability for these simple measurements. We applied these formulae to a Tseshaht First Nation archaeological clamshell assemblage (n = 488) on western Vancouver Island spanning 3000 years and observed profiles that resemble contemporary legal size limits, which suggests the sustained use and maintenance of local shellfisheries. The accuracy of these regression models for determining shell length from fragments highlights the utility of this approach as a basis for assessing past shellfish management practices.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Seasonal patterns and key chemical predictors of dissolved greenhouse gases in small prairie pothole ponds
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 18
    Shallow ponds can provide ideal conditions for production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), and thus are important to include in global and regional GHG budgets. The Canadian Prairie Pothole Region contains millions of shallow natural ponds, and we investigated GHG dynamics in 145 ponds across the region. Ponds were consistently supersaturated with CH4, often supersaturated with CO2 (57% occurrence), and often undersaturated with N2O (65% occurrence). Spring measurements showed higher N2O saturation (p = 0.0037) than summer, while summer had higher CH4 (p < 0.001) and CO2 (p = 0.023) saturation than spring. Ponds exhibited large physicochemical variation, yet sulfate concentration and pH were strong predictors of dissolved CH4 and CO2, respectively. No predictor was identified for N2O. The link between sulfate and CH4 has important implications as dissolved CH4 in low sulfate (<178 mg L−1) systems was much more responsive to changes in temperature. This research fills an important knowledge gap about the GHG dynamics of prairie pothole ponds and the role of water chemistry for diffuse GHG release. Our work can also be used in ongoing efforts to describe ecosystem services (or disservices) assigned to ponds in this agriculture-dominated region.
  • OPEN ACCESS
    Climate bottlenecks off Newfoundland and Labrador for Atlantic cod in relation to eastern Canadian marine protected areas
    FACETS • Vol. 9 • pp. 1 - 31
    Climate change presents challenges for marine area-based conservation measures through altered habitat and associated species range shifts. We conducted statistical downscaling for the eastern Canadian coastal domain over a range of global climate models, focusing on habitat suitability for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a numerically depressed, but ecologically, economically, and culturally important species in this region. We examined cod egg survival, juvenile growth, and spawning habitat suitability, combining these into one habitat index to compare within-closure habitat suitability for multiple life stages through time. Areas of high cod egg habitat suitability are projected to shift northward and increase across all area closures studied, while optimum juvenile habitat shifts north and eastward, increasing in almost all closures except the south. Spawning habitat as a function of temperature and oxygen will likely decrease through time across the entire region, but less in northern locations. Overall cod habitat is forecasted to decline in the south of the region while increasing at central and northern latitudes, highlighting the importance of existing and developing northern shelf area closures. While warming will bring temperatures closer to optimum levels for cod in this cold-water system, oxygen limitation will become more prevalent in the south of the region and should be monitored as an important ocean health indicator.