The many pathways of climate change affecting coastal ecosystems: a case study of western Vancouver Island, Canada
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study region
2.2. Literature review and pathways of effects modelling
Effect category | Description | Examples of reported indicators and effects |
---|---|---|
Behavioural | Effects on an organism's behaviour, including anxiety, feeding, and reproductive behaviour | Diurnal movements, feeding rates, initiation of feeding, predation increase, prey selection, food preference, preference for dark zone (anxiety), total path length travelled, vertical distribution, number of mates per male |
Calcification | Effects on calcification and calcified body parts | Shell dissolution, shell strength, shell malformations and deformities, shell thickness, skeletal growth, shell area, shell size, calcium content, Mg/Ca ratio |
Community | Observed community changes within the functional group | Percentage of Pisaster in sea star community, species richness, fraction of southern species, fraction of northern species, proprotion of diatoms, proportion of nanoflagellates |
Disease/illness | Disease and exposure to toxins | Wasting disease, proportion of senescent (non-healthy) individuals, blade bleaching, toxicity of bloom, paralytic shellfish poisonings |
Genomic | Effects on genes, gene expression, evolution | Gene encoding for heat shock protein HSP 70, gene expression, genetic diversity, level of polymorphism, evolutionary potential, evolutionary response, holdfast resistance, rate of evolution, gene expression of carbonic anhydrase, transcriptome |
Geographical range and seasonality | Changes to where and when species occur | Range expansion, biogeographical shift, spatial distribution, suitable habitat, range, protected area connectivity, advection towards shore |
Growth | Effects on the growth rate, size, or weight of organisms | Biomass production rates, body length, body size, growth rate, fond and net blade growth rates, length at age, population recovery (growth), production, shell growth, primary productivity, shell size, size at 50% maturity |
Morphology | Changes to an organism's morphology, except changes in calcified body parts (→ Calcification) and reproductive organs (→ Reproduction/Recruitment) | Otolith size |
Physicochemical | Effects on physical and chemical composition and processes within an organism's body, including body temperature, metabolism, and proteomics | ATP production, body temperature, C:N ratio, carbon (d13C), d15N, expression of heat shock proteins HSP70 and HSP 71, oxygen consumption, oxygen consumption rate/metabolic rate, phenolitic content, pumping arrest, respiration rate, frequency of heart beat, HSP 90, maximum quantum yield of PSII, organic biomass, residence time (time taken to expel dye from the oscula), heart rate, hepatosomatic index, ingestion rate, proteomic profiles, pumping strength, tissue N content and C/N ratio, antioxidant capacity, filtration rate, NH4 + excretions, probability of tissue withdrawal, total lipids |
Population size | Changes in population size (if not attributed to reproduction, growth, or survival) | Abundance (of adults or youth-of-the-year), biomass, density, front density |
Reproduction/recruitment | Effects on reproduction, including effects on development of reproductive organs and completion of life cycle | Density of sporophytes, dispersal, gametogenesis, number of class 1 and class 2 oocytes, germination rate and success, gonad growth, hatching time, number of eggs, oocytes per unit area, pre-settlement growth rates, time to reach sexual maturity, settlement success, spawn indices, stock recruitment, survival of larvae, yolk sac area, zoeal duration (time of settlement), dormancy, egg production, embryo mortality, gonadal index, larval length, fecundity, gametophyte size, pelagic duration, percentage of spawners, gonosomatic index, settlement time, larval survival, zoeal mortality, zoeal survival, development of secondary sex structures, dry mass of embryo, eggs transferred per mating episode, germling growth rates, mortality of spores, reproduction rate, oocytes per follicle, percentage of individuals with sexually mature gonads |
Survival | Effects on survival/mortality | Abundance (if attributed to changes in survival), dislodgement, breakage, longevity, mortality rate, survival rate, lifespan |
3. Results
3.1. Pathways of effects model

3.2. Literature statistics

3.3. Multiple stressors and multiple effects

Reference | Stressors | Endpoint | Reported effects |
---|---|---|---|
Allen and Wolfe (2013) | Warming, storms | Phytoplankton | Warming and storms both influenced the seasonality of blooms. |
Villalobos et al. (2020) | Warming, acidification | Forage fish | Warming affected the mortality and metabolism of Pacific Herring. Acidification alone had only small effects. However, it exacerbated the effects of warming. |
Stevenson et al. (2020) | Warming, acidification | Sessile invertebrates | Warming and acidification, together and in combination, adversely affected pumping capacity, tissue withdrawal, and structural integrity. |
Padilla-Gamiño et al. (2013) | Warming, acidification | Sea urchins | Warming and acidification had mainly additive physicochemical and genomic effects. |
McCabe et al. (2016) | Warming, storms | Phytoplankton | Warming initiated a harmful algal bloom offshore. Storms transported it to nearshore ecosystems. |
Hollarsmith et al. (2020) | Warming, acidification | Giant kelp | The effects of warming and acidification differed between populations. Overall, warming negatively and acidification positively affected reproduction, with no significant interactions. |
Gaitán-Espitia et al. (2014) | Warming, acidification | Giant kelp | Warming and acidification had negative effects on reproduction. There was a significant interaction of these stressors affecting spore mortality and dormancy, but no significant interaction for germination rates. |

4. Discussion
4.1. Climate change effects
4.2. Multiple stressors, multiple pathways, and pathways of effects models
4.3. Study scope and limitations
4.4. Research gaps
4.5. Future directions: towards pathways of effects databases

4.6. Summary and conclusions
Acknowledgments
References
Supplementary material
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